Kenya to Secure US Trade Deal Before Year-End: A New Era for Exports, Jobs, and Economic Growth

OUS Academy in Switzerland
Sep 21
4 min read

Kenya has taken a bold step toward securing its economic future by launching an ambitious plan to finalize a bilateral trade agreement with the United States before the end of 2025. This strategic move comes at a critical time, as the Africa Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) — the trade arrangement that has given Kenyan exports duty-free access to the US market for years — approaches its expiration date.

For Kenya, this is more than a trade negotiation. It is about jobs, economic stability, investor confidence, and the long-term growth of key industries such as textiles, apparel, agriculture, and manufacturing.

Government officials have stressed that the new deal aims to protect thousands of jobs and expand opportunities for exporters while boosting investor confidence and strengthening Kenya’s trade reputation globally.

Why This Trade Deal Matters

1. Protecting Kenyan Jobs

The textile and apparel sector alone employs close to 300,000 people in Kenya, both directly and indirectly. Duty-free access under AGOA has enabled factories to thrive, providing stable incomes to workers and supporting entire communities.

If AGOA lapses without a replacement deal, exporters could face tariffs that would make Kenyan goods less competitive in the US market, threatening jobs and production levels. By acting early, Kenya hopes to avoid this disruption and secure the livelihoods of thousands of families.

2. Economic Stability and Investor Confidence

A clear, predictable trade framework encourages long-term investments. Local and foreign investors are more likely to commit resources when they know market access conditions will remain stable for years ahead.

This deal will not only protect existing trade flows but could also unlock new investments in technology, logistics, and industrial expansion. When investors see policy certainty, they bring in capital, create jobs, and build industries.

3. Export Diversification

Kenya has long been known for tea, coffee, and horticulture exports. However, recent years have shown promising growth in textiles, processed agricultural goods, leather products, and light manufacturing.

A modern trade deal with the US could encourage Kenyan businesses to diversify even further, expanding into pharmaceuticals, high-value agro-processing, and value-added manufacturing — sectors that could position Kenya as a competitive global player.

4. Strengthening Global Trade Relations

Trade agreements often go beyond tariffs. They set standards for labor, environment, digital trade, and investment protection.

By negotiating with one of the world’s largest economies, Kenya signals its readiness to meet global standards and participate fully in modern trade systems. This can strengthen Kenya’s reputation, not only in Washington but also with Europe, Asia, and the Arab world.

What the Government is Seeking

Kenya aims to secure a deal that maintains or improves upon the benefits currently enjoyed under AGOA. Key priorities include:

Duty-free access: Ensuring Kenyan goods continue entering the US market without tariffs.
Stable rules of origin: So exporters know exactly what qualifies for preferential access.
Market certainty: So businesses can plan production, investment, and employment strategies with confidence.
Support for small businesses: Ensuring small and medium enterprises can also benefit from trade opportunities, not just large exporters.

Challenges on the Road Ahead

While optimism is high, challenges remain.

Time pressure: With AGOA set to expire soon, negotiations must move quickly.
Global trade tensions: Shifts in US trade policy, tariffs, or geopolitical concerns could complicate talks.
Compliance standards: Exporters may need to upgrade quality and sustainability standards to meet modern trade requirements.

However, these challenges also bring opportunities. Upgrading standards can make Kenyan goods more competitive in Europe, Asia, and Arab markets as well.

Opportunities for Growth and Investment

A successful deal could spark growth in multiple ways:

Foreign Direct Investment (FDI): Investors seeking to serve US markets may set up factories in Kenya, taking advantage of preferential trade access.
Technology transfer: New investments often bring modern technology, training, and global best practices.
Job creation: More factories, farms, and service providers mean more employment across urban and rural Kenya.
Regional integration: Neighboring countries may supply inputs or use Kenyan infrastructure to reach US markets, positioning Kenya as a regional trade hub.

Benefits for Kenya-Arab Trade Relations

The Joint Kenya-Arab Chamber of Commerce and Industry (JKACCI) sees this development as particularly important for Arab business partners.

Supply chain opportunities: Arab companies providing raw materials, machinery, or investment funds could find more opportunities as Kenyan exports grow.
Trade logistics: Increased export volumes often require better shipping, warehousing, and financial services — areas where Arab investors have strong capabilities.
Food security partnerships: Processed agricultural exports from Kenya can complement food security initiatives across the Middle East and North Africa.

A Model for Future Trade Agreements

If Kenya successfully negotiates a modern, comprehensive trade deal with the United States, it could serve as a blueprint for agreements with other partners — including Arab countries.

Such agreements could cover:

Preferential tariffs for agricultural and manufactured goods.
Simplified customs procedures to reduce delays and costs.
Digital trade cooperation for e-commerce and services.
Investment protections to encourage cross-border projects.

What Happens Next

Negotiations are expected to intensify over the coming months. Both sides are discussing:

Timelines for implementation.
Specific sectors that will benefit most.
Rules for environmental and labor standards.
Provisions for technology and digital trade.

Kenyan businesses, industry associations, and trade unions are closely following developments, eager to understand how the final agreement will shape future opportunities.

Conclusion

Kenya’s determination to secure a US trade deal before the end of 2025 represents a forward-looking vision for economic growth, job protection, and global competitiveness.

For exporters, workers, investors, and trade partners across Africa and the Arab world, this is a moment of opportunity. A stable, predictable trade environment will allow businesses to plan ahead, invest with confidence, and build stronger economic ties that benefit all sides.

As negotiations progress, Kenya stands at the threshold of a new era — one defined by growth, innovation, and deeper global partnerships.